UKRAINE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
It is easy to see how such calculations apply in the context of the war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly made it clear that the Kremlin’s demands – especially Ukrainian withdrawal from the territory in the east it has successfully defended against Russia’s aggression – are not something he will agree to.
Even if he did, such a deal would almost certainly be rejected in a referendum. It will be psychologically close to impossible for Ukraine and Ukrainians to accept the humiliation of giving up something they have not lost, to reward Putin’s aggression and to be sold down the river by Trump in his pursuit of an economic side-deal with his Russian counterpart.
Similarly, it is easy to see that Russia is not negotiating in good faith. Moscow is presenting Kyiv with an ultimatum while destroying as much as possible of the country, both to weaken Ukraine’s will to resist and to undermine its future recovery. Add to that Russian resistance to credible security guarantees and the true intent of Russia’s negotiation strategy is not to achieve sustainable peace but to prepare for the next war.
If and when negotiations on Iran or Ukraine break down or the agreements they might achieve collapse, there will also need to be supporting frameworks in place that can manage the consequences. Trump’s Board of Peace, which looks like a privatised version of the UN, is unsuitable for such a task.
Not only does it lack the legitimacy the UN has, there is also no indication that its members – be they the countries attending the inaugural meeting or the people serving at Trump’s pleasure in its executive structures – have the intent or capacity to take any actual peace-making role.
The board’s membership is, numerically at least, far below Trump’s aspirations. Only 24 of the 60 or so invitations sent out have been accepted, with traditional US allies in Europe and the G7 absent from the group. Among the attendees at the Washington meeting are the likes of Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Egypt and even Belarus, a country sanctioned by the US and Europe for its support of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine.
Trump’s Board of Peace may be able to establish a free economic zone here or there and generate some real estate development. But much of that will be done to benefit its members’ wallets or egos – or both.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security at University of Birmingham. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.
