TEMPORARY RELIEF UNTIL INAUGURATION DAY
Biden’s decision to relax restrictions on the use of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, will not, however, be a game changer.
Rockets with a range of 300km will likely improve Ukraine’s position somewhat, provided there are enough of them and they are deployed wisely. It is unknown how many ATACMS missiles, which were first delivered in April, Ukraine still has.
In all likelihood, the relief will only be temporary. The best that can be hoped for is that Ukraine will be able to stabilise the current frontlines and avoid further losses of territory until at least Jan 20, 2025.
If Trump moves quickly after his inauguration to push for a ceasefire, Biden’s gamble will have paid off.
VLADIMIR PUTIN LIKELY TO DOUBLE DOWN
With so much at stake, significant risks also come with the decision. One is, of course, Russia’s reaction – unpredictable both in terms of its nature and its timing.
A Russian lawmaker, Maria Butina, has already raised the spectre of World War III, echoing a similar threat from President Vladimir Putin in September. While it is unlikely that Putin would go directly after NATO countries now, Russia most likely has the capability to exact a high price on Ukraine, potentially even pre-emptively before Kyiv can land any blows.
