Even starker, the alliance could have turned from asset into liability. Iran-backed Iraqi politicians and militia officials rejected Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s request that they send reinforcements to Syria in support of Assad.
Iran and its allies will no longer be able to maintain a military presence in Syria or use the country as a support hub for Hezbollah. It will be forced to revisit its strategy and broader regional policies.
FEARS OF A POPULAR UPRISING
The fact that a popular armed insurrection toppled Assad has set off alarm bells in Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has long viewed popular revolts in Ukraine and other East European nations as US-engineered efforts to destabilise Russia’s neighbourhood, while Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets in mass anti-government protests over the years.
“The situation in the Islamic Republic is not comparable to Syria at all. Nevertheless, one should take note of public opinion,” said conservative politician and journalist Naser Imani to an Iranian media outlet.
Critics removed without explanation social media postings in which they asserted that Iran had wasted resources on supporting an unpopular leader in Syria, an implicit criticism of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a friend and staunch supporter of Assad.
Even so, some fear that the collapse of the Assad regime could strengthen the hand of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its hardline supporters. IRGC members asserted that “abandoning” Assad constituted a “betrayal” that would have serious consequences for Iran.
Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a younger IRGC member as saying: “We zealous youth will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers.”
For Russia and Iran, the silver lining is that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham appears more interested in focusing on Syria’s rehabilitation and reconstruction rather than retaliation. In doing so, the rebels may help Assad’s backers save face while taking out one of their foremost regional assets.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.
