Temperatures are dropping, and days are shortening, and that means we’re again barreling toward respiratory illness season. To kick things off, COVID infections are already on the rise.
The virus has been flying somewhat under the radar. “With the measles outbreaks that we’re seeing and all the foodborne illnesses that we’ve seen, the numbers of cases of COVID have not caught the attention of everyone the way they have in previous years,” says Jodie Guest, an epidemiologist at Emory University.
Nevertheless, now is the time to think about what’s happening with COVID and how to best protect yourself.
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How high are current COVID rates?
According to wastewater surveillance, levels of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, have been steadily increasing nationwide since July, with the starkest upticks in the western and southern U.S. These are in line with what experts have seen in recent years, however.
Importantly, in places where rates of the virus are higher, indicators of serious illness aren’t rising yet, says Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease physician and a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. Typically, he says, there’s an increase in rates of the virus in wastewater, then positive tests and then hospitalizations from infections. In recent months, the first two have happened, but the third hasn’t appeared yet.
What COVID variants are circulating?
Nearly half of current SARS-CoV-2 specimens represent closely related descendants of a strain called XFG. That might help explain the low hospitalization rates to date, Chin-Hong says; XFG first arose in early 2025 and has dominated infections for more than a year, meaning that most people’s immune systems probably have some familiarity with the viruses currently circulating.
Earlier this year experts worried about a mutation-rich variant officially designated BA.3.2 and nicknamed “Cicada.” But those fears are quieted now, and nothing new seems to be brewing yet. “We don’t have a blockbuster new variant like we’ve had in previous years,” Chin-Hong says.
What about vaccines?
Every vaccinated person reduces the spread of the virus. “We are all part of the support system for keeping people healthy from COVID,” Guest says.
For people without underlying risk factors, COVID infections are not outright dangerous but remain deeply unpleasant, Guest and Chin-Hong say. Symptoms remain wide-ranging, including fever, congestion, fatigue and gastrointestinal issues, with severe symptoms lasting up to a week, Guest says. Infection is also continuing to trigger long COVID, although incidence is difficult to measure.
This year’s updated vaccines are targeted to XFG variants, suggesting that immunization should be particularly protective. As in recent years, both mRNA and protein vaccines are available, and vaccination should be fully covered by health insurance despite continuing legal chaos surrounding the federal committee whose recommendations typically guide insurance companies.
Experts recommend getting a shot by mid-October, although people at higher risk may want to act faster, and there’s no such thing as too early. “Now is a great time to get a COVID vaccine—now is perfect,” Guest says. “But any time you get it is the right time.”
Guest and Chin-Hong encourage everyone older than six months of age to be vaccinated.
Parents should note that very young children will need a doctor’s appointment for vaccination and that there are reported delays in supplying the federal Vaccines for Children program, which covers one of every two kids. Despite these hurdles, vaccinating children—particularly those under two years old—is a key priority, given their increased risk of severe infection and lack of prior immunity. “It’s like 2020 for a child,” Chin-Hong says.
Other particularly vulnerable people include those over 65, those with compromised immune systems and pregnant people, whose vaccination will also protect children who are too young to be immunized themselves.
Are there other medications targeting COVID?
A key new development in the COVID landscape for this year is the approval of Xocova, also known as ensitrelvir. This five-day, seven-pill regime can reduce the likelihood of infection after exposure to the virus, although experts say it shouldn’t take the place of vaccination.
Two key caveats are that Xocova is not approved in the U.S. for children under age 12 and that it may interact with certain medications such that others shouldn’t use it. Although it requires a prescription, people can work with their doctors to have some on hand in case they need it, Guest says.
In addition, for people who do get infected with COVID, Paxlovid may be prescribed for those with moderate or mild symptoms who may be at risk of more severe disease. The drug stops the virus from multiplying in the body, effectively constraining its severity.
