Payrolls in the US declined by 105,000 in October, followed by a 64,000 uptick in November, according to the delayed nonfarm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment now sits at 4.6%–a four-year high.
The November jobs data was delayed because a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted the normal collection of labor market surveys. That alone introduces uncertainty, yet it also amplifies the significance of the patterns we do observe.
Naturally, a portion of lost jobs in October were due to the government shutdown, but the downward trend has emerged. Around 162,000 government positions were shed in October, followed by an additional 6,000 in November. These jobs are inconsequential as they do not add to the economy. October was the third time in the past six months that payrolls went into negative territory. Per usual, previous reports were revised downward. August’s report was revised to show a decline of 26,000 jobs compared to the initially reported 26,000, with 11,000 more jobs lost in September.
The 64,000 additional jobs in November may have beaten expectations, but averaged around 35,000 net jobs per month based on recent readings, which indicated stagnation rather than expansion.
Health care was responsible for 70% of new hires last month, or 46,000 positions. Construction also experienced a notable gain of 28,000. Transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000 as AI takes over those positions. Leisure and hospitality shed 12,000.
The number of people holding more than one job increased, as did the number of discouraged workers and those adding part-time jobs to make ends meet to 8.7%. This high has not been seen since August 2021 when the US economy was slowly recovering from lockdowns.
December’s report will be released ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in January, but the Fed cannot change the labor market through rates. The central bank cut rates three times this year and nothing changed. Expect slower growth, rising unemployment, and a re-evaluation of rate policy in early 2026.
