“I don’t care about the midterms,” President Donald Trump said last week. Conventional wisdom says he must. But maybe we should take him at his word.
The president has, again and again, created significant and unnecessary headwinds for Republicans.
Take Trump’s endorsement of scandal-ridden Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Senate primary. In polls, Paxton had consistently trailed Democratic front-runner James Talarico relative to Cornyn. Now, Paxton’s win is giving Democrats the best shot they’ve had in decades to flip a Senate seat in the nation’s most populous red state. And it’s not just whom Trump picked but when: By waiting until the last minute to endorse, the president ensured the GOP bled cash for months.
Zoom out, and the president’s pattern of indifference grows. Trump also helped push out incumbent North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who announced months ago that he wouldn’t run for reelection. That seat is now widely expected to flip to Democrat Roy Cooper. Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate in November have now dropped to a coin flip (55% to 45%), according to betting markets.
Then there’s the House. Democrats’ chances of retaking the House of Representatives are over 80%, according to Polymarket. A generic Democratic ticket is favored by seven points, according to analyst Nate Silver. To be sure, the party out of power is usually favored during the midterms. Yet that advantage is being exacerbated by the president’s unusually low approval rating, particularly on the economy. Because Trump has demanded absolute loyalty from Republican members of Congress, representatives in swing districts and states have almost no room to separate themselves from him.
I’m also not seeing any attempt to woo back voters worried about rising costs. There’s no legislative action on the horizon to address economic woes or bolster consumer confidence. Instead, Trump went on the record saying he doesn’t “think about Americans’ financial situation.” What a gift for Democratic campaign ads.
Some folks may argue that Trump’s just calling the shots after the fact. Paxton was running slightly ahead in polls relative to Cornyn, and he might have won anyway; better to get behind the eventual winner. The midterm map was always going to be hard for Republicans; might as well announce that you don’t care. Prices keep going up, and probably will as long as the U.S. is committed to tariffs and the war in Iran; so just say you don’t think about it.
There’s also the reality that the president called for an aggressive push to draw more favorable districts ahead of the November elections. He has also called for changes to who can vote (in the stalled SAVE Act) and how votes can be cast and counted. All these actions suggest he does care about maintaining GOP power; he’s no nihilist. (Nor are the Democrats guilt-free when it comes to gerrymandering or attempting aggressive federal election reforms.)
But I’m increasingly of the mind that Trump might actually benefit if the Senate and the House flip to Democratic control. A majority-Democratic Congress could become the scapegoat that Trump’s second term has been missing. Trump will blame any and all shortcomings on Congress’ new Democratic majority.
And in a dynamic unique to Trump, losing control of Congress wouldn’t have much impact on his governing agenda. Aside from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last summer, which largely was an extension of the previous tax bill from 2017, there’s essentially been no major legislative agenda to speak of that would require the support of Congress. Trump has relied on executive action more than any modern president.
Another benefit: Empowered Democrats are unlikely to be humble and moderate. They’ll want to be the center of attention, to turn the spotlight on themselves. Bring on the legislative calendar filled with hearings, investigations and allegations. “This is what Americans voted for!” they’ll argue, whether it is government-run grocery stores or sweeping corruption charges against MAGA figures. They’ll be tempted to ignore the underlying data that our nation remains deeply and evenly split. They might try to impeach the president or pass progressive legislation for the president to veto.
That, too, could work in Trump’s favor by turning him back into either a victim of the elite or a protector against the progressive tide. The president is at his political apex when he reminds the nation of what awaits on the other side: the woke agenda, the socialist agenda or worse.
The bottom line is that the November elections are going to be a real challenge for congressional Republicans in part because of the recent actions of the president. But for Trump, there might be political upside regardless of who wins.
Maybe our unconventional times have let my imagination wander too far. But at some point, when the president says he doesn’t care about his party holding onto power, one has to wonder why.
