IRAN’S CALCULUS
Diplomatic efforts with the US remain stalled, especially since a Jun 17 truce collapsed and the US reimposed oil sanctions and the blockade on Iranian ports.
“Iranians believe that diplomacy is doomed to fail in the current climate and that the Americans will not accept their terms,” said Zeidabadi.
“Consequently, they may feel compelled to resort to offensive action to force the US to accept Iranian conditions … and to initiate a new round of negotiations.”
Iran suffered heavy losses in the initial bombardment campaign, including the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders, as well as extensive material and economic damage.
But the political system has remained intact, and intense bombardment eventually subsided following an Apr 8 ceasefire, apart from sporadic exchanges of fire, particularly in and around Hormuz.
The war has since spread across the region to include clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea’s Bab Bab el-Mandeb strait.
“Tehran increasingly believes that American military superiority does not give Washington escalation dominance,” said Toossi.
The Strait of Hormuz has become central to that calculus, with Tehran requiring vessels to seek permission and to pay service fees to transit — a move strongly opposed by Washington and regional countries.
Reopening the strait has become a US priority.
US Vice President JD Vance said last week that “goal number one” was keeping energy prices low for Americans, while preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon ranked second.
A Jun 17 memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington that outlined terms for a truce was a far cry from US President Donald Trump’s initial call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.
That truce later collapsed over disagreements primarily over the management of the Hormuz but Iranian officials still tout it as evidence of “victory”.
“I can state with conviction that we have won this war in the true sense of the word, both militarily and politically,” top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a speech last week, while describing the deal as a source of “pride and victory”.
