President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian goods, purportedly to reduce the trade deficit with India and punish it for buying Russian oil, will have a notable impact on Washington state businesses and consumers.
India is the state’s ninth-largest trading partner by container volume, according to the Northwest Seaport Alliance. Washington state imported $0.82 billion of goods from India and exported $1.86 billion to India on average in 2023 and 2024 — a clear trade surplus, according to the latest U.S. Census data on state-specific trade. The goods Washington imports from India now will become more expensive due to these tariffs. India could impose retaliatory tariffs, which may further reduce sales to India of Washington’s goods.
Among the products whose prices are likely to rise here are food and textiles. India is the largest shrimp supplier to the United States, and nearly half of the shrimp and linen products imported by Washington come from India, based on the latest census trade data. The cost of spices such as turmeric and coriander is also expected to rise significantly. The U.S. is India’s biggest market for apparel exports, according to the Indian government.
For some of the goods, particularly seafood and handcrafted items, there may be no good alternative sources for Washington businesses and consumers. For other goods, businesses could shift to suppliers from places such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. However, the abrupt nature of the tariffs may not give them enough time to find new suppliers without negatively impacting their profits. Those businesses that rely heavily on Indian goods could go out of business.
India adopted retaliatory tariffs in response to the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum in 2019. These hit Washington apples particularly hard and exports to India decreased by 99% — a loss of over $100 million. India lifted the tariff in 2023 and apple shipments have rebounded.
If India again imposes retaliatory tariffs, other industries in Washington like aerospace and tech, could be impacted, along with agriculture. Significant digital services from Washington include royalties and software licensing fees. India had promised to reduce digital services taxes on the tech industry, but it may no longer move forward with that policy.
The U.S. has also eliminated the de minimis exemption for packages carrying products worth less than $800. As a result, the Indian postal service has halted shipments to the United States and many other countries because of uncertainty on how to collect the tariffs. This affects the nearly 200,000 Washingtonians from India who expect packages from relatives overseas during the upcoming holiday season.
The tariffs have strained India-U. S. relations; however, the countries continue to negotiate. India has argued that other countries import more oil, gas and coal from Russia than India does, but those countries have not been hit with tariffs like India has. Although India claims that it needs Russian oil, it resells some of it on the open market. It could potentially agree to purchase only the oil it needs for its own consumption. If Ukraine and Russia were to strike a peace deal, perhaps Trump would ease up on India. India could also shift its oil purchases to other countries, like Saudi Arabia or Iran, or the U.S. could present an alternative, less-expensive source for oil.
President Trump has stated that the tariffs are designed to allow American industries and businesses to develop. The irony is that for industries to develop in Washington, they need access to Indian goods. The state’s technology and manufacturing sectors rely on a range of goods from India, including glassware and other products for the pharmaceutical sector as well as machinery, electronic components, chemical products and other raw materials crucial for developing and producing finished goods in Washington. The increased cost of these imported components could stifle innovation and production for these industries, rather than help them grow.
