Healy: I think about places like Youngstown that you mentioned and look at the rushed and careless nature of this policy and I wonder if Trump really believes, in the end, in the long-term goal of reindustrialization of America, or if this is more about that negotiation country by country, seeing what better deals he can get. He believes so deeply in leverage. I think he, like a lot of American presidents, has looked at China in particular and said, How do we get more leverage in this relationship? Are tariffs the answer, or an answer? Do we know, in terms of getting leverage in that U.S.-China relationship, in a way that could have a positive impact for this country?
Appelbaum: I mean, it hasn’t worked yet. We’ve now had tariffs on Chinese goods at a fairly high level for years. There’s no evidence that these have made life sufficiently uncomfortable for China, that it is willing to make significant concessions on the kinds of issues that the United States cares about.
I think the way to conceptualize China is there are nations with whom the United States has a relationship and who are invested in that relationship, not just economically but politically, in terms of national defense, in terms of their goals and values. And with those nations, Trump can effectively use tariffs as leverage to renegotiate at least some of the terms of those relationships. It is extremely plausible that Canada will make significant concessions to the Trump administration in order to maintain its economic relationship with the United States.
But China is in a different category. It doesn’t see itself as dependent on the United States or as necessarily interested in maintaining good relations with the United States. I think we’re playing with fire. We’re talking about a nation that already sees itself in many respects as being in a state of conflict with the United States. And if we exacerbate that and ratchet up tensions, the effect may be not to encourage them to draw us closer, but instead to push us further away.
Healy: I want to talk a little bit more about China’s response here, because it’s so obvious that tariffs on China are different than they are in a lot of other countries, say, like Madagascar. They make a lot of stuff we need, and unlike their American counterparts, Chinese leaders don’t have to worry about what the voters will think when they get hit with tariffs or reciprocal tariffs. Will China’s retaliation, do you think, be the thing that finally forces Trump to back down on some of this kind of rushed, careless strategy that he’s been pursuing? Or is it likely to be other forces?
