Jost’s emailed reply was succinct:
He is clearly the most impulsive and unpredictable U.S. president of our lifetimes, so I think it is impossible to say. But based on the first 100 days of this presidency, I would say extremely dangerous to any and all democratic institutions and proponents.
Trump, Jost continued,
perfectly exemplifies all nine characteristics of the authoritarian personality syndrome:
(a) aggression against those who deviate from established norms, (b) submission to idealized moral authorities, (c) uncritical acceptance of conventional values, (d) mental rigidity and a proclivity to engage in stereotypical thinking, (e) a preoccupation with toughness and power, (f) exaggerated sexual concerns, (g) a reluctance to engage in introspection, (h) a tendency to project undesirable traits onto others, and (i) destructiveness and cynicism about human nature.
Steven Pinker, a psychologist at Harvard who has been at the forefront in the university’s confrontation with the Trump administration, pointed out that
So far Trump has reacted with vengeance, threatening further research cuts as well as rescinding Harvard’s tax-free status, in response to Harvard’s lawsuit, even after his administration admitted that the list of demands had been sent in error. This is indeed governance by revenge rather than justice.
Bullies and street toughs, Pinker continued,
think well of themselves not in proportion to their accomplishments but out of a congenital sense of entitlement. When reality intrudes, as it inevitably will, they treat the bad news as a personal affront, and its bearer, who is endangering their fragile reputation, as a malicious slanderer.
“And the trio of symptoms at narcissism’s core — grandiosity, need for admiration and lack of empathy — fits political tyrants to a T. It is most obvious in their vainglorious monuments, hagiographic iconography, and obsequious mass rallies.
One of the most threatening characteristics of such leaders, Pinker wrote, is that “their lack of empathy imposes no brake on the punishment they mete out to real or imagined opponents.”
There is “a big difference between classic tyrants and Trump,” according to Pinker:
It is that his thirst for dominance and revenge often loses out to his mercurial nature and short attention span. We saw this in the border wall, tariffs, and other stop-and-start policies.
He delights in chaos as much as in revenge. This means he could lose interest in one of his vendettas and move on to the next one. Also, like street bullies, he thrives on bluff and bluster, and often has a glass jaw when the target is overwhelming. We saw this in the fact that he did peacefully vacate the White House in 2021 despite claiming that the election had been stolen.
There is still a larger question. If, in the face of adversity, Trump and his allies attempt to overturn democracy, what are their chances? I asked Herbert Kitschelt, a professor of international relations at Duke and the 2025 recipient of the prestigious Johan Skytte Prize in political science, that question, and he provided a nuanced reply by email: “No scientific, evidence-based investigation can currently provide a factually grounded prognosis” on “whether and how Trump and the Christian Evangelical-nationalist-Southern wing of the Republican Party might break the democratic constitution of the United States,” he wrote.
Instead, Kitschelt argued, it is possible to “outline the forces that may impinge on whether this process will take place or not.”
Kitschelt then specified the four factors working in favor of the establishment of “an authoritarian coalition in the United States.”
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1) “U.S. technological innovativeness and productivity gains — more so than in other advanced capitalist countries — have generated anxiety among many occupational groups.”
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2) “The U.S. has a weak welfare state — in terms of pensions, health care, unemployment insurance, aid to families with children, public education — when compared to just about any other advanced capitalist country.”
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3) “America is the most inegalitarian advanced Western country in terms of income and wealth. That induces rich people to promote politicians who distract the economically worse-off from questions of economic distribution and focus their attention on issues of political governance, culture war, racial and ethnic hierarchies and nationalist claims to global supremacy.”
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4) “Unlike any other Western democracy, America has a deeply anti-democratic, intolerant, illiberal religious strand.”
Kitschelt went on to describe conditions in the United States that “are adverse to the victory of an authoritarian coalition” and are, in contrast, favorable to democracy:
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1) “America’s civil society: If it awakens from its current shock and slumber, signs of which are already emerging, it is likely that it will become a powerful force to uphold democracy.”
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2) “Most importantly: American capitalism, large segments of the U.S. business class, whether in finance, IT and AI, U.S. manufacturers in global production chains (vehicles, aerospace, pharma, etc.) and U.S. culture industries are averse to a MAGA & Tea Party authoritarian coalition. Populism undercuts property rights and the rule of law, rendering it impossible to make rational, profit-generating, long-term business investments.”
A severe economic crisis, which Kitschelt believes is probable given current trends, would sharply undermine Republican prospects in the 2026 Congressional elections, which might prompt Trump and his allies to “realize that they cannot win a free and fair election, and actually might face a defeat in the midterms severe enough to precipitate the impeachment of both president and vice president.”
The question then becomes, in Kitschelt’s view,
Will evangelical-nationalist clero-fascism — with other MAGA and Tea Party currents in tow — be capable of converting America into an electoral autocracy faster than U.S. civil society and large parts of the business sector will be able to mobilize a defense of American democracy and to stiffen the spine of the U.S. judiciary to preserve American institutions?
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