Coco Gauff might win the 2024 WTA Finals despite being far from favored and having a bad track record at the event.
The 20-year-old American will enter the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh as one of the highest-ranked players in the draw, but her record against her rivals might suggest that winning the title is unlikely.
Gauff struggled at the year-end championship before. In her debut in 2022, she lost all three of her singles matches with a 0-6 set record, and she also lost all three of her doubles matches with Jessica Pegula.
Last year, Gauff and Pegula lost all of their doubles matches at the event again despite being the top seeds, but Gauff fared a bit better in the singles. She won two matches in the round-robin stage, reaching the semifinals, just to be destroyed by doubles partner Pegula, 6-2, 6-1.
This year, she will enter the tournament again as the third highest-ranked player, and despite the odds being against her, Gauff might win the tournament for three reasons.
Reported court speed in Riyadh
The players are already in Riyadh; most have held a practice session in Saudi Arabia. According to the reports, the courts at the event play fast, which should benefit Gauff.
She is the best mover on the WTA Tour, and her biggest triumphs came at tournaments with fast, hard courts — the Cincinnati Open last year and the U.S. Open.
With fast courts playing into her strengths, the 20-year-old might have a good enough advantage to overcome even her terrible 1-11 record against Iga Swiatek (her only win against Swiatek came in Cincinnati.)
Form coming into the tournament
Not many players had better form coming into the tournament than Gauff. Aryna Sabalenka’s 20 wins in the last 21 matches stand out, but the same can’t be said about Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Barbora Krejcikova.
Swiatek hasn’t played since the U.S. Open, and the same applies to Rybakina. Krejcikova has recently struggled with tennis, retiring from her Ningbo Open match.
Gauff, on the other hand, sensationally won the China Open in Beijing. At the Wuhan Open, she reached the semifinal before losing to Sabalenka in a match she could have won. She won nine out of her last 10 matches, with only Sabalenka probably in better form.
New wind in her sails
After parting ways with Brad Gilbert, Gauff started working with a new coach, Matt Daly. When speaking to reporters in China, she refused to detail what changes Daly plans to make to her game, but improvements to her serve were palpable already in China.
In addition, she had plenty of time since her exit at the Wuhan Open to further work on her game, and like last year, a new coach seemingly did wonders for Gauff, who might continue on the winning wave in Riyadh.
She might not be the top favorite or seed, but she wasn’t even at last year’s U.S. Open yet won. The same could happen at the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
