We know we are approaching a major high in Bitcoin when Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), a publicly traded media company controlled by the U.S. president’s family, announced a plan to purchase $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin on Tuesday. This is a warning that we are in the throes of a typical bubble that will not end nicely.
As a trader, you come to understand that every market, no matter what, acts the same because it is NOT the instrument, be it tulips, stocks, commodities, or bonds – it is human nature and the madness of crowds. A crash becomes inevitable when 97% of the people are all long and they run out of fresh buyers. Like the Russian collapse, because all the bankers were long and the hedge funds, then they tried to sell and discovered that they were the market. When they try to sell, the broker says there is NO BID! Bitcoin is a trading vehicle like everything else. It is no exception to the rules of markets. It is just the next Tulip or Dot.COM or AI craze.
I would NOT invest in Trump Media and Technology Group. It appears to be a brief rally, but this decision is misguided and emotional. They are risking the company on a speculation and are all caught up in the typical bubble, assuming the majority is correct. Why not convert your cash to yuan or euros when your expenses and revenue are in dollars? I can’t even recall the number of companies that came crawling to me for help after making the same risky FX trades.
The problem remains, the majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is why no market is ever exempt from the inevitable boom and bust cycle. This is also when it only takes a minority to bring down a government or a market.
