Who’s going to win?
I get asked that a lot and often ask myself the same question. I’ve spent an embarrassing amount of time poring over poll crosstabs.
I hate making predictions – mainly because I despise being wrong – but the evidence is piling up that Donald Trump will be moving back into the White House.
Before I do, I’d like to mention this video. It’s a hilarious compilation of over-the-top “Trump can’t win!” predictions from 2016, juxtaposed with his victory. It’s also a stark warning to overconfident Republicans: Don’t count your chickens yet. I could’ve written an almost identical column in 2016 extolling Hillary’s strengths.
That said …
Polls Now Favor Trump
Any fair-minded look at the polls shows Trump winning if the election were held today.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump by a slim 0.9% in the RCP national poll averages. Contrast that with eight years ago when Clinton led Trump by 6.1%, or four years ago when Biden led by 7.9%.
Yet the Electoral College tilts in Trump’s favor. Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton by 2.1% and to Biden by 4.5%. Most forecasters now believe Harris needs at least a 3% national lead to win the election.
How do state polls look for Trump? Razor tight, but he’s currently leading in all 7 of the top battleground states. Three of those leads are less than 1% and all fall within the margin of error, but the last month has seen Trump slowly improving over Kamala. If he actually wins each of those states, he’ll take the Electoral College by 312 to 226 electors.
A big caveat. Should we trust these polls? They missed the mark by miles in 2016 and even more in 2020, consistently low balling Trump. They redeemed themselves somewhat in 2022, though we all remember the much-hyped “Red Wave” fizzling into a ripple.
Pollsters claim they’ve made changes, desperate to salvage their reputations. But have they really? If so, we’re in for a nail-biter. If they’re as wrong as they were in the last two Trump elections… he cruises to a comfortable win. Both scenarios are entirely plausible.
RELATED: Singer Lizzo Accidentally Admits That the Entire Country Will Become Detroit If Kamala Harris Wins
Other Tea Leaves
Election forecasters are now favoring Trump, albeit by the narrowest of margins. He’s leading in both Nate Silver’s election model and 538’s forecast.
“Blue Wall” Senate Campaigns. What pundits called Kamala’s “Blue Wall” isn’t looking very blue, and polling now shows that the Democrat-held U.S. Senate campaigns – 3 Dem incumbents and one open seat – are all within 2 points, well within error margins. Even more telling, these same Democrats are now name-dropping Donald Trump in their TV ads, touting their willingness to work with him on popular issues. That’s a red flag for the Dems.
Betting Markets. They’re big for Trump, with essentially 60% betting that Trump will win and 38% predicting Kamala. Still, these bettors aren’t geniuses and largely reflect public opinion. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was favored in those markets even after some of the polling places had already closed.
Registration Gains. Republicans have made serious inroads in battleground state voter registrations. Take Pennsylvania, ground zero in this year’s electoral map. In 2020, Democrats boasted a 686,000 voter registration advantage. Now? It’s shrunk to 298,000 – the smallest Democratic edge in 26 years of available data.
Does this signal a mass exodus to the GOP? Or are these longtime Republican-leaning Democrats finally making it official? It’s impossible to say for certain, but it’s undeniably good news for Trump in a state he won by a mere 44,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 81,000 in 2020.
Finally, Early Voting
In July, I wrote about “A lesson the Trump team won’t forget”, outlining their ridiculously stupid decision to discourage early voting by Republicans. They reversed themselves this year, and it’s paying off.
While it’s still early days, more Republicans are requesting absentee ballots and showing up for early voting. In 2020, Democrats entered Election Day with comfortable leads in battleground states. So far, that cushion hasn’t materialized.
Polls, predictions, and pundits aside, one thing’s clear: counting Trump out has been a losing bet before. All said, this is feeling like 2016 one more time.
Syndicated with permission from Ken LaCorte
Ken LaCorte writes about censorship, media malfeasance, uncomfortable questions, and honest insight for people curious how the world really works. Follow Ken on Substack
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