Li said the defence strategy rested on four main pillars: defending the US homeland; deterring China in the Indo-Pacific through strength rather than confrontation; increasing burden-sharing by allies and partners; and strengthening the US defence industrial base.
He noted that the document explicitly stated that Washington’s goal was “not to dominate, contain or humiliate” Beijing, while stressing the need for military communication and dialogue between the two sides.
Yet Taiwan’s disappearance from the text was “striking”, Li said – particularly since last year’s security strategy referred repeatedly to the island’s role in the first island chain and Washington’s opposition to “unilateral changes to the status quo”.
He suggested that the omission reflected Trump’s priorities, with trade and tariff negotiations with Beijing now ranking ahead of the Taiwan Strait.
“If US-China trade talks go smoothly this year, Washington’s Taiwan policy may stay relatively stable,” Li said. “But if negotiations go badly, Taiwan could again be raised as a bargaining chip. Right now, Taiwan is like a chess piece between Washington and Beijing.”
Other analysts took the opposite view, arguing that Taiwan’s absence from the Pentagon document was a reflection of its deep embedding within US military planning.
Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the government-funded Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said the strategy’s focus on building a “strong denial defence” along the first island chain made Taiwan an “irreplaceable” element of US deterrence.
“Whether the US values Taiwan should not be judged by whether Taiwan is mentioned in a report,” Su said, arguing that what mattered was the US narrative on the threat from mainland China, its military investment in the region, including training and deployments, as well as arms sales and security cooperation with Taiwan.
“All of these indicators show that US attention to Taiwan Strait security has not cooled – it has increased,” he said.
Not all observers were reassured.
Tang Shao-cheng, a research fellow at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations in Taipei, said Taiwan also needed to confront the underlying political impasse with Beijing.
“If we rely entirely on the US, and Washington reaches certain deals with Beijing, we are very likely to become a bargaining chip,” he warned.
The debate over Washington’s intentions has come as public confidence in Taiwan over any US military intervention appears to be ebbing.
A survey this month by the Taiwan Inspiration Association found 56.4 per cent of respondents did not believe the US would send troops to help defend the island in the event of a cross-strait conflict, compared with 42.1 per cent who believed it would.
Scepticism was particularly high among people aged 20 to 59, at 60 per cent, compared with 49.5 per cent among those aged 60 and older.
Fan Shih-ping, a political scientist at National Taiwan Normal University, said he was especially struck by the results among the 20-29 age group, where 63.4 per cent said they did not believe Washington would come to Taiwan’s defence.
“This scepticism towards the US among young people is something that deserves close attention,” Fan said.
Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, has intensified military pressure on the island since Lai took office in 2024.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
This article was first published on SCMP.
