QUESTION: Marty, Socrates is just amazing. You have been correlating agriculture and climate as volcanoes that produce major global cooling events. Well, just an observation: Many volcanos are becoming active or erupting simultaneously. Do you see a volcanic winter in the cards?
Sam
ANSWER: There is about a 309.6-year cycle to the big ones that result in volcanic winters. However, that begins with the 43BC eruption Okmok II in Alaska. There is a lack of data that prevents an accurate forecast of such events. However, if we look at just recent recorded events from the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano on Lombok Island, Indonesia, there appear to be events of this nature on the half-cycle so about 154 years or so. This event of 1257 is now recognized as one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the Holocene epoch.
We have three main sources: Ice Core Data: Sulfate spikes in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica date to around 1257–1258. Tree rings from 1258–1260 in regions like Europe and North America suggest prolonged cooling and reduced growing seasons. Historical Records from Medieval chronicles, both from Europe and Asia, describe extreme weather in 1258–1259, including unseasonable cold, heavy rains, crop failures, and famines. The English records recorded this as the “year of famine” with widespread starvation. Interestingly, this is why our database on Wheat began in 1259. Because of this crisis, people started to record prices.
This is why I have warned about simultaneous eruptions. There was also a smaller eruption around 1227 (traced to another tropical volcano) may have compounded cooling effects earlier in the century. Thus, this major event may have magnified the volcanic winter.
A giant volcano in Alaska is showing signs of an impending eruption. Significantly elevated levels of volcanic gas emissions were recently observed around Mount Spurr, which is located 75 miles from Anchorage and is home to nearly 300,000 people. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) said the emissions ‘confirm’ that new magma is flowing beneath the volcano, indicating a foreseeable eruption.
Small earthquakes were detected at Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Hood during the past week. These are the Cascade Range. We did have the “Volcan de Fuego,” or Volcano of Fire, blowing a thick ash cloud, seen from Palin, Guatemala, on Monday, March 10, 2025. This is more of my concern. Numerous volcanoes can have an accumulative effect.
I can say that a low in 2025 points to higher prices ahead.
