Hello and welcome to the working week.
Wall Street takes centre stage, as a string of US financial institutions post second-quarter earnings. Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock and JPMorgan are up on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday. Analysts expect a glittering set of reports, buoyed by the weak dollar and broad sanguinity about the likelihood of a global trade war.
US economic fundamentals are wobblier. The Federal Reserve is still in wait-and-see mode, as heightened uncertainty around tariffs looms over its forecasts. Economists will be anticipating the central bank’s Beige Book, publishing on Wednesday, for a clearer picture. US inflation data for June and the next reading in the Michigan consumer sentiment index will help enrich the picture of the state of play on the ground.
China is expected to deliver a second-quarter GDP year-on-year growth figure of more than 5 per cent on increased exports, despite the wave of protectionism washing over the world. Policy stimulus and the truce between Beijing and Washington have helped shield its economy from the worst effects of tariffs.
In Britain, whose economy contracted in May, skies are undoubtedly gloomier. (Although not literally, as the country swelters through its third heatwave of the year.) Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be giving her Mansion House speech on Tuesday, under a cloud of embarrassing fiscal U-turns.
Readers shouldn’t expect her to confront investor anxieties about a wealth tax. Instead, expect some chipper words on shoring up a culture of investing. Inflation data publishing on Thursday, which economists expect to have ticked up to 3.5 per cent, just might burst her bubble.
Whither Donald Trump? I’ve buried mention of the US president in this newsletter because — to quote our trade guru Alan Beattie — nobody knows anything. The White House will continue to pressure US trading partners into inking trade deals. But after extending the “liberation day” tariff deadline until August 1, its threats are losing credibility. Retaliation from the countries hit with new levies and hand-wringing from international bodies is probably on the menu. I’ll have a taco to go, please.
Aside from the banks, company reports are thin on the ground as we crawl into the dog days. One theme though is pharmaceuticals, with Johnson & Johnson and Novartis posting earnings. Another is the semiconductor industry, with reports from TSMC and ASML.
One more thing . . .
The World Aquatics Championships is under way in Singapore. Stretching through July to conclude on August 3, it showcases some of the world’s most impressive athletes in the water.
I used to quite enjoy swimming until a near-fatal accident in the Mediterranean in the summer after my 16th birthday. I haven’t really done it since then, but this heartening piece about a London club teaching adults swimming skills might just encourage me to test the waters again.
What sports are you doing this summer? Let me know at harvey.nriapia@ft.com. Or, if you are reading this from your inbox, just hit reply. Have a great week.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Tuesday
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China: Q2 GDP
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Canada: June CPI
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US: June CPI
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Results: Aker BP Q2, Ericsson Q2, Tomtom Q2, Bank of New York Mellon Q2, Wells Fargo Q2, Citigroup Q2, JPMorgan Chase Q2, Experian Q1 2026, Barratt Redrow FY trading statement, B&M Q1 trading statement
Wednesday
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US: Fed issues the Beige Book
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UK: June CPI
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Results: Morgan Stanley Q2, Bank of America Q2, Goldman Sachs Q2, Johnson & Johnson Q2, Morgan Stanley Q2, ASML Q2, Richemont Q1, Finnair H1
Thursday
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South Africa hosts two-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors
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Japan: June monthly trade data, June CPI
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Results: TSMC Q2, Volvo Cars Q2, PepsiCo Q2, Marsh McLennan Q2, easyJet Q3, Novartis Q2, GE Aerospace Q2, US Bancorp Q2, Frasers Group FY, Dunelm Q4 and FY
Friday
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US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment index July
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Results: Telenor Q2, Burberry Q1, Danske Bank Q2, Charles Schwab Q2
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Tuesday
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UK: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and Rachel Reeves to speak at Mansion House; environment committee questions Thames Water executives; parliamentary committee questions OBR chair on fiscal risks
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US: Arizona holds primary to fill vacant US House seat; Trump expected to speak at Pennsylvania energy summit
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Nominations announced for the Emmy awards
Wednesday
Thursday
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South Korea: Supreme Court to deliver final verdict on Samsung Electronics chair Jay Y Lee
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Federal Reserve: Board governor Adriana Kugler to speak in Washington on housing and the economy; board governor Christopher Waller to speak in New York on the economic outlook
