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Nature abhors a vacuum, and so, too, does geopolitics. With the US under Donald Trump vacating the stage when it comes to tackling global warming, the climate crown is waiting to be claimed – and if China’s president, Xi Jinping, wants it, it is his for the taking.
China’s climate record is mixed. Since 2006, it has been the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, as the nation has rapidly industrialised. On the other hand, that industrialisation has seen it become the world leader in solar panel manufacturing.
Xi himself has also shied away from the global climate stage. He hasn’t attended a COP climate summit since Paris in 2015, when countries agreed a target of holding warming below 1.5°C. While many nations have since interpreted this as needing to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, China has only pledged to reach carbon neutrality, a weaker promise, by 2060.
But that could all be about to change. As we report on page 10, China’s emissions appear to have peaked. It also looks like Xi is planning to make an appearance at COP30 when it is held in Belém, Brazil, this November. The pieces are falling into place for a major climate intervention from China – but what will it be?
The pieces are falling into place for a major climate intervention from China – but what will it be?
The most likely announcement is an interim target on the way to 2060, perhaps a pledge for certain cuts by 2040. But if Xi wants to be the world’s climate leader, he should go further, with a pledge of net zero by 2050. That this would simply match existing targets by the likes of the UK is no small thing, as there is a feeling in many nations that those who were first to industrialise should also be first to cut emissions. China adopting the 2050 target would make it harder for others to wriggle out of it, and could spur on green tech.
Will Xi go so far? Probably not. But with reports that COP30 may be a disappointment (see “Is the COP30 climate summit already in crisis, with six months to go?”), the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has made no secret of his desire for strong relations with China, would do well to work on convincing Xi to act. If China is to take the crown, Brazil can be the crown bearer.
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