Quarterbacks Ty Simpson (Alabama Crimson Tide) and Arch Manning (Texas Longhorns) clearly want what’s best for each other.
The QBs have said they’re friends and trade tips throughout the year. Considering that, they should agree not to turn pro after the 2025 season.
In a piece published Monday, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Nick Baumgardner agreed that the star QBs could be first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh.
It’s easy to see why QB-needy teams may be eyeing them. Simpson is tied for second in the SEC in touchdown passes (25). Manning, meanwhile, has overcome a slow start and is now tied for fourth in the conference in TD passes (24). Still, one could argue the first-year starters lack the experience required to succeed in the NFL.
Why top talent evaluators would advise Arch Manning and Ty Simpson to stay in school
Looking at how many starts a QB made and the number of passes he threw in college are among the best ways to assess his pro-readiness.
Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells prefers passers who are three-year starters and have at least 30 starts. Signal-callers who meet that criterion typically thrive in the NFL. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, a two-time league MVP, started in 34 games in three seasons for the Louisville Cardinals.
In a story published in April 2024, draftnik Rick Gosselin, a former columnist for The Dallas Morning News, wrote he “always looked for guys who threw 1,300 balls in college.”
The more passes a QB throws in college, the more prepared he should be for the league. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl champion, attempted 1,349 passes in three seasons with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Manning and Simpson fall well below these benchmarks. The Alabama junior has 12 starts in his college career and has attempted 439 passes. The Texas sophomore, meanwhile, has started in 14 games and thrown 465 passes.
Manning, 21, is the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli. Both may tell him not to rush his college experience. They didn’t.
Peyton Manning started 45 games for the Tennessee Volunteers, attempting 1,381 passes. Eli Manning started 43 games for the Ole Miss Rebels and tossed 1,363 passes.
Simpson may feel more pressure to declare than Arch Manning. The QB turns 23 on Dec. 21, which may be viewed negatively by scouts. Older prospects tend to have lower ceilings. Even then, he shouldn’t let that sway his decision.
Not to mention, in the NIL (name, image and likeness) era, there’s less financial pressure for players to declare early. On3 estimates Arch Manning is raking in $4M in NIL deals, while Simpson is making $2.4M.
Underclassmen have until Jan. 14 to declare for the 2026 draft (or Jan. 23 if they play in the national championship). The decision should be easy for Manning and Simpson. Keep enjoying campus life.
