The implications of this tech decoupling are profound. For consumers, it means a world of incompatible standards, with Harmony OS potentially becoming a major platform across the Global South where China’s influence is growing. While adoption by non-Chinese manufacturers faces significant hurdles, the platform’s success in China’s massive domestic market alone would make it a force to be reckoned with.
For businesses, the challenge is even more acute. Companies increasingly face an impossible choice: Maintain access to the Chinese market and risk US restrictions, or align with US policy and face Chinese retaliation.
Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s vision of a “small yard, high fence” strategy has morphed into an ever-expanding yard with increasingly higher fences.
The extensive US semiconductor controls implemented in late 2024, followed by former President Joe Biden’s three-tier AI controls as his administration’s final salvo, showcase this continued mission creep.
Yet as each new restriction has been undermined by Chinese workarounds and inconsistent US application, Washington has responded by casting an even wider net over critical technologies like advanced AI chips and ultra-fast memory chips used for advanced computing.
Beijing’s evolving counter-strategy, from targeting American drone maker Skydio’s battery supply chain, a ban on the export of dual-use commodities, notably graphite, germanium, gallium and antimony to launching probes into US chip exports, signals a clear escalation in its response to Washington’s containment efforts.
