EU leaders seek united response to Donald Trump’s tariffs

Hello and welcome to the working week.

We at The Week Ahead like to deal in the certainties of the diarised items you need to be aware of, which makes the coming days somewhat difficult as markets wait on the counter measures to the US president’s tariffs.

EU trade ministers will gather on Monday and the focal point will be the response to Donald Trump, perhaps offering some signals on whether the EU is willing to escalate tensions with digital services taxes, or whether long-standing internal tensions end up watering down its response. However, Brussels also needs to defend itself from Asian imports seeking new markets other than the US thanks to Trump’s high tariffs on China, Japan and other nations in the region. Read the FT explainer, including this verdict from ING’s global head of macro Carsten Brzeski, written in a note to clients: “Europe’s worst economic nightmare just came true.”

In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s government is still seeking a trade deal with the Trump administration. Good luck with that. On Tuesday MPs will get a chance to grill the prime minister on this (and other matters relating to the British economy) as he answers questions set by members of the House of Commons liaison committee.

Sticking with Britain, Monday will see the opening of London’s newest river crossing, the £2.2bn Silvertown Tunnel. Cue a barrage of complaints about making this, and its older neighbour, the Blackwall Tunnel, into toll roads. My colleagues Gill Plimmer and Jim Pickard explain why this divisive project could be the start of a revival in the private finance initiative system of funding big capital schemes across the UK.

The political week ends with Ecuador’s presidential election run-off. The contest between incumbent Daniel Noboa and leftist former congresswoman Luisa González, is being held after no candidate received more than the 50 per cent needed to win outright in the first round of voting in February. If González, a former lawmaker and protégé of ex-president Rafael Correa, were to win she would be the first woman to lead the South American country.

It’s quality rather than quantity with corporate results this week. The Wall Street banks begin their quarterly earnings calls this Friday, led by JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, BNY and Wells Fargo, with their traders expected to record their best quarter in more than a decade thanks to the Trump-fuelled market furore. This is just as well given the poor performance of the investment banking arms in recent months with M&A deals hampered by the market uncertainty.

In the UK, Shell is likely to be one of the most watched as it chases its US rivals in the market capitalisation stakes, as explained in this FT piece. Tesco, among the retailers braced for a difficult 2025 as Britain’s employment tax rises and cost of living pressures bite, will also draw attention. Its success, or not, in the past few months may indicate how consumer spending is holding up.

The central banks, and their senior staff, have a lot in their schedules this week with the Federal Open Market Committee publishing the minutes of its most recent rate-setting meeting, the Bundesbank putting out its monthly report, an expected further 25 basis point rate cut expected from the Reserve Bank of India, and plenty of central bank governor speeches.

It’s a busy week too for significant economic reports, with the US, Japan, Germany and China publishing inflation rate updates, a UK monthly GDP estimate, German industrial production and trade data, and the Bank of Canada’s first quarter business outlook survey. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

The University Boat Race is possibly my favourite British spectator sport for its accessibility — just turn up on the river bank, buy a beer from a riverside pub and cheer — and the fact that no one really cares who wins apart from those who really need to get a life. It also has a certain west London charm, which — as this piece from HTSI highlights — even French fashion brands recognise.

Do you care whether Oxford or Cambridge win this year? What other sporting pursuits this month should I be bothered about? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Steve Buck becomes Thames Water’s chief financial officer, replacing Alastair Cochran, who stepped down unexpectedly last month

• EU: February retail sales figures

• Germany: February production index

• UK: Halifax April House Price Index

• Results: Applied Nutrition HY, Ferrexpo Q1 production report, Shell Q1 quarterly update

Tuesday

• Bank of England deputy governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London

• EU: Q4 house price data

• Japan: Cabinet Office Economy Watchers Survey

• Results: Hilton Food Group FY, OMV Q1 trading update, Property Franchise Group FY, Staffline FY, Unite Group Q1 trading update, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q2

Wednesday

• EU: new system for GDP calculation published

• India: Reserve Bank of India bimonthly interest rate setting announcement

• New Zealand: interest rate announcement

• US: Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the last rate-setting meeting

• Results: AudioBoom Q1 trading update, Delta Air Lines Q1, JD Sports company update FY, Oxford BioMedica FY, Saga FY, Seven & i Holdings FY

• Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 100th Trustees Conference

Thursday

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee to speak at the Economic Club of New York

• Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects

• Model railway business Hornby to exit London’s AIM stock market after shareholders voted to delist at a general meeting on April 1

• UK: Rics Residential Market Survey

• US: March Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate and real earnings data

• Results: Barry Callebaut HY, CarMax Q4, Constellation Brands Q4, Fast Retailing HY, Mears Group FY, Rank Group Q3 trading statement, Tata Consultancy Services FY, Tesco FY

Friday

• Vicky Saporta, executive director of the markets directorate at the Bank of England, shares a panel at the Delphi Economic Forum annual conference, Learning from failures: how financial failures reshape market and strategies, in Greece

• Germany: March CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: February GDP estimate, GB construction output figures and KPMG/REC UK report on jobs

• US: March producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Aeon FY Bank of New York Mellon Q1, BlackRock Q1, Fastenal Q1, JPMorgan Chase Q1, Morgan Stanley Q1, Wells Fargo Q1,

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Luxembourg: EU’s Foreign Affairs Council (trade) meeting discusses tariff arrangements for the US and China, the bloc’s first and second-largest trading partners respectively

• Malaysia: Asean finance ministers and central bank governors four-day meeting in Kuala Lumpur

• UK: Silvertown Tunnel, a new London river crossing, opens as a relief route for the neighbouring Blackwall tunnel with a user charge to help cover building and maintenance costs for both tunnels

Tuesday

• Kazakhstan: Two Russian cosmonauts and a US astronaut launch to the ISS on Russia’s Soyuz MS-27 mission, launching from the Baikonur Cosmodrome

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer goes in front of the Commons liaison committee, answering questions on US trade relations, economic growth, welfare reforms and health, international affairs and defence spending

Wednesday

• Belgium: EU-Ukraine Association Council meeting in Brussels

• US: Former movie mogul Harvey Weinstein’s retrial on sexual misconduct charges begins in New York. He also faces new charges of sexually assaulting a woman in a Manhattan hotel in 2006

Thursday

• Argentina: General Confederation of Labor, Argentina’s largest union, holds a 24-hour general strike to protest against President Javier Milei’s economic austerity measures and reforms

• India: Global Technology Summit in New Delhi

• South Africa: G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins

• US: centenary of the publication in the US of F Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, a literary classic about the era immediately before the Wall Street crash

Friday

• Belgium: Nato Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, chaired by the UK and Germany

• Germany: 80th anniversary of the US ninth Armored Infantry Battalion liberating Buchenwald concentration camp near Weimar towards the end of second world war

• Poland: Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) informal meeting of EU finance ministers in Warsaw

Saturday

• Passover, the Jewish holiday marking the account of the Israelites’ exodus from slavery in Egypt, begins this evening

• Record Store Day, 18th annual international celebration of independent record retailers, featuring in-store shows and exclusive releases from artists

• Gabon: presidential election

• US: Japan-America Society of Washington holds the two-day street festival Sakura Matsuri to celebrate Japanese culture, now in its 63rd year

Sunday

• China: Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub

• Ecuador: presidential election run-off

• Japan: Osaka Expo begins in Osaka, Kansai, running until October. The theme is Designing Future Society for Our Lives

• UK: University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge on London’s river Thames

• Vatican City: Pope Francis scheduled to mark Palm Sunday in St Peter’s Square