The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is in the books: The Washington Wizards stumbled their way into the No. 1 pick, and the Indiana Pacers somehow fumbled their way out of one of the best lotteries ever.
This class is loaded. The top four prospects — BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson — could each go No. 1 overall in most years. With the order finally set, here are five post-lottery questions worth asking.
1. How much are the Jazz willing to give up to get AJ Dybantsa?
It’s no secret that Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith, an esteemed BYU alumnus, loves him some Dybantsa, the current favorite to be drafted first overall. Heck, he’s essentially had Dybantsa on his payroll the past two years. The Massachusetts-based prodigy transferred to Utah Prep for his senior year of high school and then committed to BYU, where he averaged a nation-leading 25.5 points last season.
The first big question about this draft will be: Is Smith, whose team has the No. 2 pick, willing to get reckless to guarantee he lands his guy?
Would he dangle last year’s lottery pick and potential future star Ace Bailey (13.8 PPG as a rookie), along with the No. 2 pick, to move up one spot? That’d be a hefty sum considering Bailey has a similar ceiling to Dybantsa, albeit with a lower floor.
My prediction: Smith
won’t have to. Something tells me the Wizards are going to talk themselves into Peterson (20.2 PPG last season at Kansas) with the top pick. Peterson spent most of the season as the best draft prospect and is still No. 1 on many scouts’ boards. At his best, he looked like Kobe Bryant or James Harden had been dropped into a college game. Those images of high-level, effortless scoring will endure in the minds of NBA front offices; the bizarre behavior and his cramping will fade from memory as the draft nears.
In the end, the Wizards should try to play chicken with the Jazz to acquire additional assets, but the Jazz should call their bluff and hold tight at No. 2. Everybody wins.
2. Is there a chance Caleb Wilson leapfrogs Cam Boozer?
Absolutely. NBA teams love drafting athletic forwards with superstar upside earlier than consensus. And while the results are very mixed — sometimes you draft Scottie Barnes, other times you select Patrick Williams — it’s well worth the risk for a prospect like Wilson.
Wilson has a chance to land somewhere on the Evan Mobley-Kevin Garnett-Giannis Antetokounmpo spectrum of uber-athletic, two-way big men who can contend for Defensive Player of the Year awards, guard every position, destroy opponents in the open court and even play on the perimeter a bit.
Wilson’s floor is below Cam Boozer’s, but his ceiling is as high as any player’s ceiling in this draft, so don’t be shocked if the Grizzlies take him at No. 3. Wilson’s explosiveness could help ease the blow of Ja Morant’s expected departure and give the city another exciting player to get behind.
3. Will OKC bully its way into the top four?
Don’t be shocked if they try.
This draft is loaded. The next two are not. Thunder GM Sam Presti has built an empire that is as well-positioned as any franchise in NBA history to achieve sustained excellence. They have the deepest roster in the NBA, one full of exciting talent. They also have double-digit first- round picks in 2026 and 2027. This seems like the draft Presti has been waiting for to consolidate some of those assets and land his next potential superstar.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all have massive contract extensions that kick in next season. Together, those salaries will account for 75 percent of the cap. In the coming years, they must decide whether to part with one of those three or recycle the majority of their role players for cheap talent on rookie deals.
If they take the former route, Williams is the odd man out because of Ajay Mitchell’s emergence and the fact the Thunder haven’t skipped a beat despite Williams missing the majority of the season and playoffs because of injury. Could Williams + No. 12 + some future first-rounders be enough to get them up to third or fourth? Or could they sell high on Mitchell and package him with Nikola Topic and a bunch of future firsts and overwhelm a team drafting in the top four?
If they somehow landed Wilson, good luck to anyone trying to score on their already historically great defense for the next decade.
4. Did the Pacers’ title window just close?
Yes.
The Ivica Zubac trade with the Clippers was so, so dumb at the deadline. After lottery night, it’s a five-alarm fire. From a big-picture standpoint, the Pacers lost Myles Turner (via free agency) and traded Bennedict Mathurin, the No. 5 pick in a loaded draft and their 2029 first-rounder and gained Zubac, who is marginally better than Turner but certainly not as good of a fit.
The fifth pick alone is worth more than Zubac. The unprotected pick in 2029 might be as well. Mathurin swung NBA Finals games last spring.
That’s brutal asset management. They tanked all season for nothing! Indiana needed fresh talent or the type of veteran the fifth pick would yield in a trade. Now, they’re older, and star Tyrese Haliburton is recovering from the worst injury (torn Achilles tendon) a basketball player can suffer. Plus, the Eastern Conference is better.
GM Kevin Pritchard apologized to fans on social media Sunday night. He should be apologizing to Haliburton and should resign because his dumb gamble slammed shut the Pacers’ window of contention.
5. Which superstar ends up in a deal for a lottery pick?
The Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes will once again dominate headlines this offseason (and ESPN swears the trade talk it’s real this time!). Unfortunately for some of the Giannis hopefuls like the Hawks and Warriors, the lottery gods failed to bless either of them with a coveted top-four pick that could’ve made their offers a lot more enticing for Milwaukee.
But fans of NBA chaos need not worry about a boring draft night June 23 because there are plenty of stars who could be on the move this offseason. In addition to Giannis, expect to see the Magic’s young stud Paolo Banchero in plenty of rumored swaps in exchange for top-10 picks as Orlando looks to finally add a real point guard.
And don’t be shocked if the Clippers jump-start a pseudo-rebuild by dealing their tree-hugging superstar Kawhi Leonard to a team looking to contend next season. Keep an eye on the Mavericks, who own pick No. 9 and just hired Leonard’s old GM from Toronto, Masai Ujiri, to run the organization. Same goes for the Warriors (No. 11), Heat (No. 13) and Hornets (No. 14).
Bottom line: Expect a wild draft night. There are too many variables and moving parts heading into this pivotal offseason for it to be a quiet night.
