Trump didn’t just defy the liberal assumption that his demonization of immigrants would cost him Hispanic voters; he turned those expectations upside down.
How did that happen?
Efrén Pérez, a professor of political science and psychology at U.C.L.A., provided an explanation in an email responding to my queries:
Latinos, like other humans in the world, have a multiplicity of identities: religion, class, race, ethnicity, nation, etc. Which of those identities drives behavior depends on the immediate context — with political discourse playing an important role in raising the salience of in-groups and out-groups.
The more Trump/Republicans hammer home on “Americans” and “Making America Great Again,” the more salient American identity becomes for Latinos — especially for those who prioritize it more than their ethnic identity.
The fragility of their identity as Americans, Pérez argued, makes Hispanics particularly sensitive to any challenge to that identity:
What’s unique in this setup is that Latinos are American “pledges,” sort of like new fraternity brothers. They value their American identity, but also feel insecure about it. So, in order to prove their worth as Americans, they are motivated to brighten the line between “us” (Americans) and “them’” (non-Americans) such as undocumented immigrants and other racial minorities, including Black people.
These conflicting pressures, Pérez continued, show
why building political coalitions between people of color can be difficult. Latinos, specifically, sometimes express hostility toward Black people because they feel their own sense of Americanness is being questioned, so they lash out at an “un-American” group to sharpen the distinction between “us” and “them.”
It’s probable, in Pérez’s view — though not guaranteed — that the pro-Republican shift among Latino voters will continue:
We know this new trend toward Republicans is not election-specific. And, as the Latino population becomes increasingly native-born, their sense of American identity will get stronger. American identity is mentally associated for Latinos with the Republican Party.
The cross-pressures within the Latino electorate are evident in an analysis of survey data, “2024 Latino Voters Survey,” by Roberto Suro, a professor of public policy and journalism at the University of Southern California, and José E. Múzquiz, a Ph.D. candidate there.
“Latinos who voted for Harris and Trump,” they wrote, “differ markedly in how they see their own identity as Latinos and how that identity relates to their political convictions.”
Latinos who voted for Kamala Harris, Suro and Múzquiz found, “overwhelmingly (71 percent) said that the fate of Latinos in general had ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ impact in their lives. In nearly equal measure, 63 percent of Trump voters said the impact was ‘not much’ or ‘not at all.’ ”
Asked whether they agreed that Latinos and Black people are “natural allies as people of color,” 42 percent of voters for Harris agreed, and 30 percent disagreed. Among Trump voters, 20 percent agreed, and 43 percent disagreed. Strikingly, Latino Trump voters’ rejection of an alliance with Black voters was unequivocal: The 43 percent of Trump voters who disagreed that Latinos and Black people are natural allies were made up of 38 percent who said they “completely disagree” and 5 percent who said they “disagree somewhat.”
