The lopsided nature of the first round of the College Football Playoff left much to be desired. The quarterfinals offer more promise, especially the marquee matchup between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon.
Here’s what you need to know (all times Eastern):
No. 6 Penn State (12-2) vs. No. 3 Boise State (12-1) | Tuesday | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN (Glendale, Arizona)
This game will be won on the ground, but it’s not the team you may think. Boise State boasts of Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty, who has rushed for at least 127 yards in all 13 games this season. But Penn State has held opponents under 100 yards rushing eight times. That’s the matchup that will decide the game.
Penn State head coach James Franklin’s record against top-five teams (1-15) is under intense scrutiny, but his team is primed to advance thanks to a stalwart defense (253 yards per game, third in nation) and its own impressive running game (189 yards per game, ninth in nation).
Prediction: Penn State, 31-14.
No. 5 Texas (12-2) vs. No. 4 Arizona State (11-2) | Wednesday | 1 p.m. | ESPN (Atlanta)
This is another matchup featuring an elite running back in Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo (1,568 yards, 19 TD) against one of the nation’s best run defenses in Texas (76 yards per game, seventh in nation).
“When you first turn on his tape, you’re thinking you’re going to see (former Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back) Mike Alstott,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said recently. “You’re just going to see this bruiser that’s running through the line and bouncing off people. The more you watch, the more you’re like, ‘Man, this guy has really great feet and contact balance.’ Right when you think he’s going to run someone over, he makes them miss. He uses a stiff arm. He’s really good in the open field.’”
After a dreadful performance running in the SEC Championship against Georgia, Texas came back with a vengeance in the first-round win over Clemson (292 yards, four TDs).
Skattebo is on tear, rushing for eight touchdowns in the past three games. But despite all the talk about the running games, it’s the quarterbacks who may very well decide the game. Texas QB Quinn Ewers has thrown four interceptions in the past three games. ASU QB Sam Leavitt has only thrown one in the past six. Mistake-free football could keep the Sun Devils in the hunt for a major upset.
Prediction: Texas, 38-33
No. 8 Ohio State (11-2) vs. No. 1 Oregon (13-0) | Wednesday | 5 p.m. | ESPN (Pasadena, California)
This is a high-profile rematch, college football bliss. Little separated the two In Oregon’s 32-31 win at home on Oct. 12.
Interestingly, Ohio State enters as a 2.5-point favorite as of Monday, according to ESPN Bet. “We’ve all been looking forward to this one and for another crack at these guys,” said Ohio State quarterback Will Howard after the victory over Tennessee in a first-round game. “The way that last one ended doesn’t sit right with me. It still bugs me.”
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel must duplicate his performance from October (341 yards, two TD passes), but Ohio State looks like an improved team compared to the last meeting. Since the Oregon game, the Buckeyes rank No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed per play (3.8), yards allowed per game (234.4) and points surrendered per game (11.7).
Prediction: Ohio State, 29-24.
No. 7 Notre Dame (12-1) vs. No. 2 Georgia (11-2) | Wednesday | 8:45 p.m. | ESPN (New Orleans)
A scintillating Sugar Bowl matchup closes out the quarterfinals. No Carson Beck at QB for Georgia puts Notre Dame in the driver’s seat. The Irish have steamrolled opponents since the Northern Illinois loss Sept. 7 (+28.8 average margin of victory).
Georgia’s defense, as it has shown throughout the season, can keep the Bulldogs in any game. But will it be able to generate anything offensively against a Notre Dame defense that has held opponents to 300 yards or less four of the past five games?
Georgia, favored by 1.5 points (per ESPN Bet) as of Monday, must get solid play from backup QB Gunner Stockton. The sophomore has completed 25-of-32 passes this season for 206 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Perhaps the unknown is to Georgia’s benefit.
“You evaluate, obviously, what they’ve done all season, and you have a separate tape of what Stockton has done,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said recently. “I think we have 80-something plays of him. He can run their offense. He does things a little bit differently. He can extend plays with his legs, he’s a good athlete. The thing I probably noticed most about him, he’s an ultra-competitive individual.”
Prediction: Notre Dame, 28-14.
