We’ve seen six first-time major championship winners in the last 12 majors played, so the odds are another first-timer will break through in 2025. Let’s rank the five most likely golfers to win their first major championship this season.
This one seems obvious. Aberg is no longer a rising star on the PGA Tour — he’s a bona fide superstar. The 25-year-old notched nine top-10 finishes in 2024, and he finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in his first career major championship appearance at The Masters.
Aberg is the perfect fit for modern golf courses because he crushes the ball off the tee, is a brilliant long-iron player and can get scorching hot with the putter. It’s hard to find a weakness in Aberg’s game. All he needs to do is learn how to win at the highest level.
Hovland had an up-and-down 2024 season that featured only two top-10 finishes, but one of those was a solo third at the PGA Championship. That performance capped off an impressive run of four top-seven finishes in seven major starts.
The biggest issue holding Hovland back is and always has been his chipping. Last season, he ranked 128th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from around the green. Although his short game needs to improve to take the next step in his career, his A-game is good enough to win multiple majors.
Fleetwood has been knocking at the door of his first major championship for nearly a decade. The Englishman has seven top-five major finishes in his career, and he’s on a sparkling run of four top-fives and eight top-20s in his last 12 major starts.
Fleetwood is coming off a successful fall in which he finished T12, T3, solo third, T6 and T16 in five DP World Tour starts, so he’s riding some momentum into 2025. His consistently accurate driving and steady iron play make Fleetwood an excellent fit for major championship venues.
4. Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay got his first real taste of contending on a major championship Sunday at last year’s U.S. Open. Although he finished two shots short of Bryson DeChambeau in the end, the American gained valuable experience that will help him the next time he finds himself in that situation.
We know Cantlay can get it done against the best fields in the world. He’s won a Tour Championship, two BMW Championships and two Memorial Tournaments. A major championship is the next pillar to fall.
5. Joaquin Niemann
We’ve always believed Niemann to be a potential top-10 talent in golf. Before leaving for LIV Golf in 2022, the Chilean went wire-to-wire at the Genesis Invitational, dominating one of the strongest fields in golf.
Niemann is coming off a spectacular LIV season in which he won twice and finished second on the points list behind only Jon Rahm. His shot-shaping ability is a sight to behold, and he crushes the ball off the tee for a man of his build. Don’t be surprised if Niemann works his way into contention at a major this year.
