As an architect of the Iraq War, Donald Rumsfeld was, to say the least, a controversial Secretary of Defense, but he made one astute observation that stands the test of time:
“There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
Rumsfeld’s complex aphorism applies to politics as much as to war, and it is particularly apt for the midterm elections of 2026, given all the uncertainties that are making most of us unnerved and anxious.
So, what are this election’s known knowns?
We know that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dropped into the low 30s. Democratic candidates are showing unusual strength in several states that normally are dominated by Republicans. Almost every pundit and pollster expects the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives to shift to the Democrats. And we know that polls can be wrong.
And what do we know that remains unknown?
We do not know which way all the very close races for the U.S. Senate will tilt, so it is impossible to predict if Democrats can pull off a surprise takeover of the upper chamber of Congress. We do not know whether the expected Democratic House majority will be large or small, dominant or tenuous. We do not know if the massive amounts of money being poured into various Republican campaigns by billionaires such as Elon Musk will sway voters away from Democrats, or, conversely, offend voters and drive them toward Democrats. And despite all the favorable polls for Democratic candidates, we do not know who will actually take the time to vote.
Then, there are the unknown unknowns that, in the past, have been characterized as October surprises.
What underlying dynamic in the electorate is being missed by polling data? Does the Trump administration have tricks in store to disrupt the voting process? Are foreign hacking operations planning to fiddle with voting systems? What are we missing in all the noise and pontification?
Someone asks me every day to predict what will happen on Nov. 3 and, after regurgitating a bit of conventional wisdom, I always have to say, “Who knows?”
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