This is a textbook case of how someone can reach the top of one field and still be utterly clueless about everything else. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg served as National Security Advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence and later as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. He is Co-Chair at the Center for American Security, America First Policy Institute, USA, which is a Neocon think tank. The man’s ignorance is staggering. He has made no effort to examine the facts—or, more likely, he knows them and deliberately refuses to discuss how Victoria Nuland helped select the interim government that started this civil war and attacked the Donbas on Neocon orders.
He advocates that Zelensky should tell President Trump to go to hell and destroy every refinery in Russia. To illustrate his sheer stupidity: forget the food crisis he would cause in Russia, knowing that would lead to nuclear war—he completely ignores that Africa and the Middle East account for over 80% of Russia’s wheat exports, making those regions the most directly tied to Russian grain. Iran is 100% dependent on Russian grain. That would be a surefire way to make the Middle East explode into a full-blown war, which would then merge with the Russia-versus-EU war, and China and North Korea would join.
It is these Neocons, who simply hate the Russian people, who are cascading the world into World War III over a war they instigated using Ukraine. He would fulfill our model by pushing diesel to the extreme, projecting $8, which would hit the U.S. economy, reduce trucking, and result in a U.S. food shortage. This is what I mean. Expertise in one field does not qualify you to argue about things that will impact the rest of the entire world with zero comprehension of where that leads.
A full-scale war with Russia would very likely cause a severe global diesel crisis, and in many regions, a collapse in supply is a real possibility. The system is already under extreme strain, and a broader conflict would push it past its breaking point. Our computer projects $10+ a gallon by 2032.
The Current Diesel Market Is Already Fragile
The global diesel market is not starting from a position of strength; it is already in a state of acute shortage driven by two simultaneous wars. A wider conflict with Russia would remove one of the world’s largest suppliers from a market that is already reeling. Russia is the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 9.5% of global export volumes, whereas the United States exports 1,264,000 bpd, or 15.4%. Russia’s exports are a vital source of supply for Turkey, Brazil, and parts of Africa and the Middle East.
Russia’s diesel exports have already plummeted due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. In June 2026, exports fell below 1 million tons, compared to around 2.5 million tons a year earlier—a drop of over 60%. Its monthly exportable surplus has fallen from about 3 million tons to as low as 325,000 tons. Global inventories were already drained before any wider war. In the U.S., diesel stocks hit their lowest level for September 2026 since 1982, and European stocks in the ARA hub were 16% below the five-year average.
There has been a shortage without a wider war. The combined effect of the Iran war (disrupting Gulf refining and shipping) and the Ukraine war (disabling Russian refineries) has already created a global diesel shortage expected to last into 2027 even if peace were achieved now. With that unlikely, the shortages will expand into 2028.
A direct war with Russia, as advocated by the EU, would be catastrophic because it would compound the existing crisis in several ways—not to mention seriously wiping out the European economy. Russia’s exports would likely cease entirely, either through a formal blockade or the destruction of its remaining energy infrastructure. The market would lose a supplier already responsible for nearly a tenth of global trade.
The current war has shown that refineries are Zelensky’s primary targets after he blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline. A wider conflict would likely see attacks on refining and export infrastructure far beyond Russia, including in the Middle East and potentially on shipping routes, further crippling the world’s ability to turn crude oil into diesel.
War is incredibly fuel-intensive. NATO’s Secretary General has warned that a full-scale conflict would require “hundreds of thousands of cubic meters of fuel daily” for tanks and fighter jets, putting immense additional strain on already depleted supplies. Military needs would be prioritized over civilian and agricultural use. That is where Zelensky proves he is an idiot. Take out Russia’s fuel, and NATO will find war even more expensive to wage.
A “collapse” would not look very orderly. Not only will the food supply decline, but in Asia, ships will not be able to fish. This risks global starvation, and now everyone has a stake. The first impacts would be felt in regions already most vulnerable.
Poorer, fuel-importing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are the most exposed. They are “price takers” with limited financial reserves to buffer price shocks or secure alternative supplies. Some are already rationing fuel or declaring energy emergencies.
Diesel is the backbone of global logistics. A collapse would halt trucks, trains, ships, and agricultural machinery. This would immediately impact food distribution, leading to shortages and skyrocketing prices, with a particularly severe effect on countries dependent on food imports.
Diesel shortages are inflationary and act as a drag on the entire economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, cannot fix a physical fuel shortage with interest rate policy; it can only try to suppress demand elsewhere, risking a recession. This will fulfill our model calling for stagflation into 2028 on a global scale—all because of Zelensky.
In short, the global diesel system is already in a state of emergency. A war with Russia would not create a new vulnerability so much as it would shatter a system that is already cracking under the pressure of two existing conflicts. If U.S. heating oil closes above 4.78 at year-end, this is going to get worse before it gets better. General Keith Kellogg’s comments demonstrate how these Neocons are oblivious to the world around them. They always think they can destroy Russia and somehow never suffer any repercussions.
People like Kellogg should never be allowed to advise anyone. They are too prone to warmongering and have no regard for the world economy. There are always more civilians who die in wars than soldiers, and they ignore that. Humanity will never live in peace because people like this crave a taste of power and seek such positions to carry out their personal hatreds and love of war. Louis XIV only lamented that he had been a warmonger on his deathbed.
