BEYOND VLADIMIR PUTIN’S WILDEST DREAMS
As for grand strategy – the reality is that Trump’s threats to Greenland, Panama and Canada are an absolute gift to Russia and China.
If Trump can claim that it is a strategic necessity for the US to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal, why is it illegitimate for Vladimir Putin to claim that it is a strategic necessity for Russia to control Ukraine? If Gill can claim it is America’s “manifest destiny” to expand its frontiers, who could object when Xi Jinping insists it is China’s manifest destiny to control Taiwan?
Both Russia and China have long dreamt of pulling apart the Western alliance. Trump is doing their work for them.
Just a few weeks ago, it would have been beyond the Kremlin’s wildest dreams to see Canada’s main news magazine running a cover story on Why America Can’t Conquer Canada. The idea of European leaders invoking the EU’s mutual defence clause against the US – not Russia – would also have seemed like fantasy. But these are the new realities.
Even if Trump never makes good on his threats, he has already done enormous damage to America’s global standing and to its alliance system. And he is not even in office yet.
It does seem unlikely Trump would order an invasion of Greenland. (Although it once seemed unlikely that he would attempt to overthrow an election.) It is even less probable that Canada will be intimidated into surrendering its independence.
But the very fact that the incoming president is ripping up international norms is a disaster. Any sniggering at Trump’s “jokes” is misplaced. What we are witnessing is a tragedy – not a comedy.
