I’ll admit that I was sympathetic to Donald Trump’s heresy on trade, during his first term. His tariffs on China and his bid to renegotiate NAFTA prompted much pearl clutching from economists and pundits, but I knew from my reporting how many people in factory towns across America wanted him to do those things. The renegotiation of NAFTA was, ultimately, a bipartisan success story. It passed overwhelmingly. By the end of his first term, many people — including Democrats — acknowledged quietly that tariffs on China and updating NAFTA were necessary. President Joe Biden didn’t reverse them. He built on them. But now Trump seems to have lost the plot.
He is tearing up that deal that he himself created by imposing 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, our largest trading partners. What gives?
In the case of Mexico, there have been legitimate concerns that China is getting around U.S. tariffs by building or taking over factories in Mexico. That’s one of a few reasons the U.S. trade deficit with China has declined — to $295 billion last year from $418 billion in 2018 — at the same time the trade deficit with Mexico ballooned to $172 billion last year from roughly $78 billion in 2018, according to Census Bureau data.
If you worry about chronic trade deficits, as Trump does, that’s a problem. But Trump’s ire at Canada is a mystery. The U.S. trade deficit with Canada is one of the smallest that we have — it was about $19 billion in 2018 and $63 billion last year. Virtually all of it can be explained by U.S. purchases of oil, gas and electricity, a reminder that Canada is critical to U.S. energy security.
Without energy, the United States actually runs a trade surplus with Canada. Canada is the top export market for 34 states — or at least it was.
Trump’s targeting of Canada has bewildered even his own political allies on trade. “On Canada, he’s just wrong,” one told me. I can’t pretend to understand what goes on in Trump’s brain. But this much is clear: It ain’t about trade.
If you listen to his words, Trump is declaring economic war on Canada, our loyal and peaceful neighbor, because he wants to bring it to its knees and take it over as a 51st state. He’s wielding tariffs as a weapon, not to defend American workers, but to execute a hostile takeover of a country. It is a move so bizarre and shocking that nobody can quite believe it is happening.
I was in Indiana this week, which is full of factory towns that supported Trump. Canada is the state’s largest trading partner by far. I didn’t met a soul who thinks beating up on Canada is a good idea.
